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How to Check Tomorrow's Board Against the Hourly Forecast

How-to Guide WeatherWork Updated Oct 28, 2026

Why this matters

Most weather holds are called at 6:30 a.m. by a crew lead standing in the shop lot looking at the sky. By then the customer is up and expecting the crew, the material is on the truck, and the only options are to send the crew anyway or to waste the morning rebuilding the day. Almost every one of those holds was visible in the hourly forecast the afternoon before.

This card is the afternoon check: a dispatcher or owner, about fifteen minutes a day, comparing each weather-sensitive job on tomorrow's board against the hourly forecast for that job's location and the job's own limit, and writing down a call. How to read the forecast itself (what the columns mean, what a precipitation percentage is saying, how far ahead an hourly is worth trusting) is owned by Reading a Forecast for the Work, Not the Weekend. The crew lead's morning confirmation is The Daily Weather Go/No-Go SOP. This is the step between them.

The three calls

Every weather-sensitive job gets one of three words, and each word has a fixed meaning so that whoever reads the board in the morning acts the same way:

  • GO. At the job's working hours and through its protection window afterward, the forecast sits inside the job's limit with margin to spare.
  • WATCH. Inside the limit, but the margin is thin enough that a forecast shift overnight would put it outside. A watch always carries a written trigger: the specific number that, at the morning re-check, turns it into a hold.
  • HOLD. Outside the limit at the working hours or during the protection window. The customer is called today.

A watch without a trigger is not a call; it is a deferral to the morning, which is the problem this card exists to fix.

Step 1: Pull the weather-sensitive jobs at a fixed time

At the same time every working day, a starting default of 2:00 p.m., list tomorrow's jobs tagged as weather-sensitive or partly sensitive in the job record (the tags are set at booking; see related: How to Build Weather Holds Into the Schedule).

Why a fixed time: early enough that a hold can be phoned to the customer during business hours with a new date, late enough that the forecast is the day-before run, not the two-days-out one. What breaks if you skip it: the check happens when someone remembers, which on a busy day is never.

Step 2: Write each job's limit next to it, including what happens after the crew leaves

From the job record, copy the limit for the material or the work: the application temperature (air and surface), the dew point margin, the rain-free time after application, the wind limit for the ladder, roof or sprayer, the overnight protection need for concrete. These come from the product's data sheet or the shop's own rule, captured at booking; see related: How to Read a Product Data Sheet for Its Weather Limits.

Why the after-window: the most common miss is a job whose working hours are clear and whose cure is not. A coating that finishes at 2 p.m. and needs four dry hours is a job that runs until 6 p.m. as far as the weather is concerned. What breaks if you skip it: a GO on a sunny forecast with rain at 4 p.m.

Step 3: Pull the hourly forecast for the job's own location

Use the job address, not the shop's town. Elevation, a coastline, a river valley or 30 miles of distance can move the rain timing by hours and the overnight low by several degrees.

Why hourly: a daily forecast of 55 F and a 40 percent rain chance says nothing about whether the rain is at 7 a.m. or 9 p.m., which is the only question that matters. What breaks if you skip it: the right decision for the wrong place.

Step 4: Compare at the working hours and the protection window

For each job, put the forecast numbers at the hours the crew will work, and through the after-window from Step 2, next to the limit. Compare the right quantities: surface temperature limits are not met by the air temperature (surfaces lag on a cold morning and run hot in sun), and a wind limit stated for gusts is not met by the sustained figure. See related: Sustained Wind Versus Gusts and Which One a Limit Means.

Step 5: Decide, and write a trigger for every watch

Write GO, WATCH or HOLD. For a watch, write the trigger in numbers: "hold if gusts at or over 25 mph before noon", "hold if the rain start moves earlier than 5:30 p.m." For a go with a condition (start later, finish by a time, load blankets), write the condition where the crew lead will read it.

Step 6: Set the call-out times

Commit the times, as shop defaults to tune:

  • Holds: the customer is called today, by 4:30 p.m., with the new date. What to say is owned by The Weather Reschedule Communication SOP.
  • Watches: re-checked at 5:30 a.m. against the trigger; the call is made by 6:00 a.m.; the crew lead knows by 6:15 a.m.; a customer whose job turns to a hold is called by 7:00 a.m., before any crew would have arrived.
  • The crew sees the calls and conditions on the board before they leave the shop.

Step 7: Log the morning outcome beside yesterday's call

At the morning re-check, write what actually happened next to the afternoon call: held up, flipped, rain came early. After a season this shows which jobs and which forecasts your calls were too cautious or too bold on.

Worked example: Wednesday afternoon, Thursday's board

At 2:15 p.m. Wednesday the dispatcher at a residential exterior shop pulls five weather-sensitive jobs for Thursday. The limits below are the ones in each job record, from each product's data sheet or the shop's rule; the figures are illustrative, as every product differs.

BOARD FOR THU          checked WED 2:15 PM  by: dispatch
---------------------------------------------------------
101 Exterior repaint, 1 coat latex   crew A 10a-1:30p
 LIMIT air + surface 50F min; no rain 4 h after
 FCST  10a 52F, 1p 58F; rain 70% from 6p
 CALL  WATCH. last brush 1:30p, 4.5 h dry to 6p
       trigger: rain start earlier than 5:30p
---------------------------------------------------------
102 Driveway sealcoat                crew B 8a-12p
 LIMIT air 50F and rising; no rain 24 h after
 FCST  8a 47F, 11a 55F; rain 70% from 6p
 CALL  HOLD. 6 h dry of 24 needed
       customer called by 4:30p today
---------------------------------------------------------
103 Shingle section repair           crew C 8a-12p
 LIMIT shop rule: off roof at gusts 25 mph+
 FCST  gusts 8a 12, 11a 18, 1p 26, 3p 30 mph
 CALL  WATCH. off the roof by 12p
       trigger: gusts 25+ forecast before 12p
---------------------------------------------------------
104 AC replacement (partly)          crew D 8a-4p
 LIMIT charge method set by outdoor temp
 FCST  8a 45F, 2p 58F
 CALL  GO. weigh in the charge at this ambient
---------------------------------------------------------
105 Condenser pad, bagged concrete   crew E 8a-12p
 LIMIT protect nights below 40F; no rain on
       fresh surface
 FCST  lows THU 33F, FRI 30F; rain 70% from 6p
 CALL  GO. blankets + poly on truck, covered
       by 1p
---------------------------------------------------------
GO 2   WATCH 2   HOLD 1

How each call was made:

  • 101. At the job hours the air is above 50 F from 10 a.m., and the crew's start was already set at 10 a.m. for exactly that reason (the north and west walls are scheduled last, when surfaces have caught up with the air). Last brush at 1:30 p.m. plus 4 hours is 5:30 p.m., against rain at 6 p.m.: a half hour of margin. Inside the limit, thin margin, so WATCH, with the trigger written as the rain start moving earlier than 5:30 p.m.
  • 102. The sealer needs 24 dry hours. Application ends at noon and the rain is forecast from 6 p.m., 6 hours later. Six of 24 is not close. HOLD, and the customer is called this afternoon with the next date that has a 24-hour dry window behind it.
  • 103. The shop rule is off the roof at gusts of 25 mph or more. Gusts are 18 mph at 11 a.m. and 26 mph at 1 p.m., so the noon finish is inside the rule with the forecast as it stands. A forecast that moves the 25 mph gusts an hour earlier breaks it, so WATCH. The crew lead is told the job must be packed down and off the roof by noon regardless.
  • 104. Partly sensitive: weather does not stop it, it changes how the work is done. At 45 to 58 F outdoors the charge is weighed in rather than set by a method the manufacturer limits to warmer conditions. See related: Refrigerant Charging Methods and Their Outdoor Temperature Limits. GO, with the condition on the board.
  • 105. The pad needs protection on two nights below 40 F (33 F and 30 F), which the shop does routinely, and its surface must not take the 6 p.m. rain uncovered. Covered by 1 p.m., it is under poly 5 hours before the rain. GO, with the conditions written so crew E loads blankets and poly tonight.

The tally line counts the CALL lines: GO on 104 and 105, WATCH on 101 and 103, HOLD on 102.

Thursday 5:30 a.m. The dispatcher re-checks 101 and 103 only. The rain start for 101's address has moved to 4 p.m.: last brush at 1:30 p.m. plus 4 hours is 5:30 p.m., an hour and a half past the new start, so the trigger fires and 101 is a hold. The customer is called at 6:45 a.m. 103's gusts still reach 25 mph at 1 p.m.: the watch holds, crew C goes, off the roof by noon. Both outcomes go in the log beside Wednesday's calls.

What would change the board:

  • A rain forecast with low confidence, say 30 percent from 6 p.m. A 30 percent hourly chance against a 24-hour sealer window is still a hold for 102, because the cost of being wrong is a ruined surface; for 101's 4-hour window it might be a go. The cost of a failed cure, not the percentage alone, sets how much margin a watch needs.
  • A job 40 miles inland at higher elevation. It gets its own forecast and its own overnight low, and the pad's protection may need to be heavier than the shop-town numbers suggest.

How to know the check is working

After a month, read the log. The measure is how many holds were called at 6:30 a.m. by surprise, rather than the afternoon before or at the 5:30 re-check against a written trigger. Surprise holds that keep landing on one job type mean that type's limit in the job records is wrong or missing its after-window, and that is where to fix it.

References

  • See related: Reading a Forecast for the Work, Not the Weekend
  • See related: The Daily Weather Go/No-Go SOP
  • See related: The Weather Reschedule Communication SOP
  • See related: How to Read a Product Data Sheet for Its Weather Limits
  • See related: Refrigerant Charging Methods and Their Outdoor Temperature Limits

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